Sunday, September 14, 2008

Results as at close of counting - Saturday 13th

Hello all

Following is my analysis of things as they stand at close of counting on Saturday night.

If you have any different view please add a comment.

Counts with all Booths primary counts in.

  • Byrne 12% within expected range
  • Sim 13% within expected range
  • Lucas 8% within expected range
  • Nunez 2% within expected range with preferences going to Lucas then Byrne
  • Liberal/ABP 23% within expected range
  • Jacotine 7% unexpected - so low. His group failed to attract Labor voters
  • Labor 35% unexpected - too strong with core voters and an observed strong migrant vote

The result is dependent on the actual flow of preferences.

Lucas will receive Nunez and Jacotine ( the poor result I did not anticipate) number 2 preferences to him to see him leap over Byrne and Sim.

Sim failed to act on the agreement between Byrne / Sim / Lucas ( all based in East Liverpool) to exchange firstly between ourselves. His Election Day HowToVote did not show any preference flows. He stopped at 1 - in my view a dishonourable act and may well see Waller elected as Mayor. Sim had 3 different HowToVotes distributed across the last week - maybe more about this later.

The scenario as at Sunday morning at 10:00

  • There are still the Pre-poll, Postal and Declared Institutions votes to be counted - several thousand of them. These are well worked by the Labor machine so Waller may pick up more ground. These are scheduled to be completed by Monday 6PM.
  • Unless I do very well with the Declared Votes still to be counted and unless there is a major flow of preferences to me from Jacotine / Ghareeb / Nunez voters I will be excluded before Sim. We will not know this until Tuesday according to the official schedule.
  • Unless there is a major flow of preferences to Sim from Jacotine / Ghareeb / Nunez voters, Sim will be excluded before Lucas. Sim's preferences will exhaust if his voters followed his HowToVote card.
Possible Outcomes where Byrne and Sim are excluded

  • Lucas if preferences flow as per Jacotine and Byrne HowToVote.
    He will outnumber Mannoun (LIB) and take his preferences to beat Waller (Labor) OR

  • Mannoun (LIB) with Lucas preferences if the above does not occur OR

  • Waller ( Labor) if preferences do not flow to Lucas or Mannoun. A real possibility.

Preference counts will not occur until Tuesday, September 16th. These will deliver the result.


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